Israeli election betting
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has an opportunity to demonstrate that Jewish-Arab political cooperation can produce tangible progress in improving the situation of Arabs in Israel, who too often face institutional and state neglect. His heavy-handed approach to solving this crisis, however, has come under criticism. The key will be whether it can succeed in stamping out crime without eroding the civil rights of the innocent civilians impacted by it.
The police force has already begun carrying out major operations against criminal organizations in Arab communities. Many Arab communal leaders, including the committee of Arab mayors and Joint List chairman Ayman Odeh, have slammed the move as an infringement of their civil rights and a dangerous precedent. The Shin Bet is accustomed to fighting terrorism beyond the Green Line, not civilian criminals within it. The organization is not bound by the same legal constraints and civilian oversight as the police force and can employ drastic measures, including holding suspects without charges and preventing them from meeting with lawyers.
Israel has never deployed the Shin Bet to combat crime in the Jewish community. Criticism of this approach among Arab leaders has been far from unanimous. The Arab public is divided on the issue. Even if Lapid pulls off a miracle, he will once again have a difficult time finding common ground among members that include Arabs, secular and dovish Jewish parties that support peace negotiations with the Palestinians and hawkish hard-liners who oppose Palestinian independence.
Since entering politics in , former military chief Benny Gantz has seen his fortunes rise and fall. Initially seen as the great hope for ousting Netanyahu, Gantz later disappointed his followers by entering into a disastrous and short-lived power-sharing agreement with him. Gantz, currently defense minister, has now carved out a niche as the head of a midsized, middle-of-the-road party.
With one small Arab party unlikely to endorse either Netanyahu or Lapid, it is possible neither side secures a majority. That is where Gantz could emerge as a power broker — and even an unlikely winner. Gantz appears to be the lone candidate in the anti-Netanyahu bloc with some crossover appeal. He could potentially steal votes from Likud to prevent Netanyahu from securing a majority. And if that happens, he also could seek to lure ultra-Orthodox parties away from Netanyahu and into a coalition with Lapid.
The parties have nearly three months to cobble together a new coalition. If they fail, Israel will return to the polls early next year and do it all over again.
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